Ukraine is racing to reinforce its air defenses as a brief pause in Russian strikes on Kyiv and other cities approaches its expiration, and military and diplomatic experts warn the move may do little to change conditions on the battlefield and could ultimately strengthen Moscow’s negotiating position.
Earlier Friday, President Donald Trump said at the White House, ‘I think we’re getting very close to getting a settlement,’ expressing optimism about the upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks. ‘Zelenskyy and Putin hate each other, and it makes it very difficult, but I think we have a good chance of getting it settled.’
The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin agreed to a personal request from Trump to halt airstrikes on Kyiv until Feb. 1 to create what it described as favorable conditions for negotiations. Ukrainian officials stressed there is no formal ceasefire.
As temperatures in Kyiv are expected to plunge to minus-26 degrees Celsius beginning Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is moving to strengthen short-range air defenses against drones to protect frontline cities in the south and northeast.
‘Protection against Russian drones must be reinforced in our cities, such as Kherson and Nikopol, as well as in the border communities of the Sumy region, where the Russians have essentially set up an ongoing ‘safari’ against civilians,’ Zelenskyy said on Telegram.
Despite the pause, Russian lawmakers and regional leaders have publicly urged escalation. Russian parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said deputies are calling for the use of more powerful ‘weapons of retribution,’ while Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he opposed negotiations altogether.
Against that backdrop, experts told Fox News Digital the pause appears far more symbolic than transformative.
Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a retired Navy SEAL and deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, said the halt in strikes reflects political signaling rather than a military shift.
‘It’s symbolic in the sense of the dialogue and where we are in the negotiations,’ Harward told Fox News Digital. ‘President Trump wants to illustrate to the U.S. that his relationship with Putin delivers results. This is a validation of that relationship, which could be an indicator of where the overall negotiations are on ending the war.’
Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition and a former senior State Department and U.S. Mission to the United Nations official, said Russia’s agreement should not be misread as a move toward peace.
‘While I am certain that Ukrainian civilians welcome any brief pause, they also aren’t holding their breath because Putin’s war machine will not stop until his calculus is changed on the risks of continuing his war,’ Filipetti said.
She added that the short duration of the pause leaves Ukraine exposed.
‘Given how short the pause is and the duplicity of Russia saying it agreed to a week-long pause that expires in two days, this does not meaningfully change any conditions on the battlefield,’ she said.
Harward said Ukraine could face diplomatic consequences once the pause expires.
‘The risk to Ukraine is that this further weakens and isolates their role and position in the negotiations,’ he said.
Zelenskyy has also warned that Ukraine’s ability to defend civilians has been strained by delays in Western funding. He said European allies delayed payments under the PURL weapons purchase program, leaving Ukraine without Patriot air defense missiles ahead of recent Russian strikes that knocked out power across parts of Kyiv.
‘This is a critical issue for protecting civilians and Ukrainian cities and Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the brutally cold winter months,’ Filipetti said. ‘As President Zelenskyy has said, there will be no electricity and therefore no heat for civilians if they don’t have enough Patriot missiles to defend against Russia’s ballistic missiles.’
Harward noted that the problem extends beyond Ukraine.
‘Air Defense has been in high demand globally, considering the threats from Russia and China,’ he said. ‘Resources, expenses and the increased time to deliver and implement the capabilities add to the challenge.’
On whether the pause could open the door to broader de-escalation, both experts expressed caution.
‘This tactical pause only serves to reinforce Russia’s negotiating position,’ Harward said. ‘Putin is showing the worldthat he is willing to listen and respond. In return, he’ll want more support of his position and demands.’
‘Only time will tell,’ Filipetti said. ‘Diplomacy can always appear fruitless until there is a real deal. If this short pause, delivered by President Trump’s continued engagement and pressure on Putin, can be used to build additional progress in the trilateral talks, that would be a very positive outcome.’
Reuters contributed to this report.